An academic competition asked the question “How do we get better at long-term coastal (morphodynamic) modelling?” My response was to express the opinion we’ve gone too far down one pathway, while substantially neglecting several areas of science, notably geomorphology. This opinion is built from watching the transition of science from the 1980s through to early 2000s, when the attempt to move ‘short-term’ modelling into ‘longer-term’ concepts was most heavily open to discussi

While we commonly talk about tropical cyclone impacts in terms of wind strength, coastal impacts require further interpretation when we're looking at a forecast map. In order to interpret wave and storm surge, storm path and intensity are crucial factors, with impacts potentially strongly influenced by storm timing relative to tides.

Understanding erosion causes is critical to choosing an appropriate response: Severe storm erosion usually deserves a ‘wait and see’ response, as nature often provides rapid, efficient and cost-effective (!) recovery. Setbacks or development buffers are practical responses to unstable coastal landforms, which can create cycles or episodes for decades or longer. If erosion is due to short-term (e.g. seasonal) or local fluctuations in sediment transport, coastal protection syst